Can Pinterest Predict the Outcome of the Election?
I was watching the Colbert Report and in it, Stephen Colbert laid out the profile of an undecided voter. The kind that will decide this election…or so they say.
The undecided voter looks like this:
- Single white female
- 18-29 years old
- Employed, low income
- Didn’t graduate from college
- Doesn’t go to church
- Skipped the debate
It’s a very funny segment, feel free to give it a look, but it’s not a must-see to get the point of this article.
Pinterest Holds the Undecideds
The profile of the undecided voter reminded me of something. A typical Pinterest user.
With few tiny variations, the typical Pinterest user looks helluva lot like the typical undecided voter. And if that’s the case, could Pinterest be used to predict the outcome of the election?
We can all agree that the accuracy of such prediction is somewhere in the neighborhood of a groundhog’s ability to predict if we’re having 6 more weeks of winter.
A much more reliable predictor of the outcome is the amount of money each candidate has to spend on the campaign, and Obama is winning in that category.
So I found it fascinating to see Pinterest results mirror each candidate’s spending ability precisely. Check it out.
Note the 127,000 results for Romney on Pinterest.
Now, let’s see how Obama is faring on Pinterest.
401,000 results for Obama on Pinterest.
Clearly, the Pinterest has spoken. Even taking into account that Obama has had a head start, his Pinterest number are way more impressive.
The Undecideds Have Spoken
The undecided voter hangs out on Pinterest, and Pinterest clearly talks more about Obama.
And since users on Pinterest pin what they love -typically- we can safely assume the sentiment for Obama on Pinterest is overwhelmingly positive.
How sure am I of this? Pretty fucking sure. As far as indicators go, I think this is a pretty solid one.